THE DRAGON AND THE ELEPHANT: CHINA, INDIA AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER

By David Smith (Profile Books)

IF YOU watched the opening of the Beijing Olympics, you would have been impressed by the fact that China was telling the world that it had arrived.

Many people fear the rise of China in the global economy as its culture seems so strange but even in an economic backwater like South Africa, China is no stranger. In this globalised world it is with us everyday, from the cheap-as-chopsticks products we buy in our shops to the threat to our garment and textile industries. On the upside, China’s voracious appetite for commodities has been good news for local industries such as coal and steel, but it has also meant a rise in the world oil price.

David Smith’s fascinating book, The Dragon and the Elephant covers the rise of China and India – both boast over a billion people – but China is the big sister.

What sets it apart is the remarkably fast pace of its economic growth, currently between nine and 10 percent of GDP – three times faster than the global average. But, cautions Smith, the size of its population distracts us from problems that could curtail growth.

Because of its one- child policy, China may well find itself growing old before it gets rich and the banking system is also hugely flawed, with state-run banks propping up firms with non-performing loans that could fall like a house of cards.

Pertinent for South Africans, the author makes a strong case for emerging economies to protect their industries from cheap imports with raised tariffs but here, for those who won’t get through the detail, is what he predicts as he looks to 2050:

1. China and India are the biggest thing to hit the world economy, but are not as big as they seem.

2. They will stretch the world’s resources, but they won’t destroy the planet.

3. They will flex their military and diplomatic muscles, but they won’t start a new Cold War.

4. They will provide market opportunities, but will remain poor.

5. They will trigger protectionism, but won’t change globalisation rules . — Gill Moodie

SIX SUSPECTS

By Vikas Swarup (Doubleday)

I HAVE read Vikas Swarup’s first novel, Q&A, so when I saw he had a new book out, I was so excited that I raced home and read the first chapter out loud – it was brilliant.

I absolutely love Swarup’s writing style. The way he highlights truths and interesting thoughts in this novel had me bursting out in fits of laughter.

Set in India, Vicky Rai was acquitted for the murder of Ruby Gill after she refused to serve him a drink. At his acquittal party Rai is shot dead.

Six suspects – a bureaucrat, an American tourist, an Indian actress, a cellphone thief, a tribesman and a politician – are taken into custody after guns are found in their possession. There’s a chapter for each of the suspects’ stories spelling out why they would want Vicky Rai dead.

Swarup gets into the personality of each character beautifully and creates a unique voice for each of them as he switches between the characters effortlessly.

The book is so thrilling that I would class Six Suspects as one of my ultimate favourites . It’s one of those classic novels where you don’t know who the killer is until the very last page.

And, Swarup fans, there’s another treat in store for you: Slumdog Millionaire, the film version of Q&A directed by Danny Boyle of Trainspotting fame opened at the Toronto film festival this week to a host of rave reviews. — Nicolette Scrooby

AA SPIRALGUIDE: SOUTH AFRICA

By Assorted authors (AA Publishing)

WHENEVER I pick up a guide book to South Africa, the first thing I do is check out what it says about places I’ve actually been to.

While the AA Spiralguide: South Africa doesn’t promise in- depth reviews on places given it’s cubby-hole sized package, its summation of East London was a huge turnoff.

“Though it has some good surfing beaches,” goes the write-up, “don’t dwell in the largely industrial and drab city of East London for too long.”

Ahem. Excuse me? Well, if that’s all the AA can say about this town before sending tourists up and out to the game reserves and East Coast resorts, then I am a little uncertain that I can trust it to point me in the right direction should I head out to discover the rest of South Africa.

And, though I hate to take this personally, my home town, Amanzimtoti, doesn’t get a mention at all!

Despite this, the spiral binding is a handy innovation for a guide book and there are lovely bright photographs and maps. For someone with no knowledge of South Africa, it will present itself as a tidy little mine of information.

After all, you can’t miss what you didn’t know in the first place. — Taralyn Bro